I think we (economy) is going to crash hard, agree or disagree?

Question

I've been thinking we were heading for a moderate pull back in the stock market (DOW 10,000 or so). But lately, I'm beginning to think we might be heading for a crash greater than 2008.

I think Greece will completely default. I think Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will be next. The losses to European banks will be enormous (requiring European governments to print trillions to bail out their banks, just like we did in 2008)... and that's not to bail out the PIIGS, that's just to keep their banks going after the PIIGS go bankrupt (you don't want to be living in Greece over the next 10 years, that much is for sure).

In the US I think Obama's plan is nothing but a diversion, something to argue over (ie. keep people distracted) while the system falls apart completely. They are saying Bank of America is planning ot lay off 40,000 people. The US postal service is saying it might have to lay off 120,000 people in the next few months.

I'm getting pretty convinced that we are going to see 15-20% unemployment in 2012 with the government unable to do anything to help (it can't print more money without making things even worse...and even if it were willing to do that, someone has to be willing to buy the debt and China is not going to buy up another 1-2 trillion of US spending debt).

Anyway, I'm really beginning to think we are on the verge of another massive collapse.

Anyone else feel the same way?

Answer 1

The S&P 500 has risen about 75% off the March 2009 lows. There is nothing surprising about this latest pullback. Sorry but you can't pretend like 2008 never happened. All that Governments can do is kick the can down the road ... but they can't stop what's coming. Greece will default? Probably .. will European Governments print trillions to bail out the Banks? I'm not sure ... I think that many folks are starting to get fed up with trying to prop up a dead horse. The Europeans fear inflation (historically they've experienced it before) more than the US (who fear deflation ... aka 1929). De leveraging takes a long time to play out ... like years and years ... so just sit back and fasten your seat belts. Look for a good opportunity to go short stocks (1250 on S&P 500) or just sit on the sidelines until the dust settles. There will be some good buys in equities in the future ... the world is not coming to an end.



15 to 20% unemployment in 2012 .... Right ... were already there now. Just talking to people you know ... do you really believe the unemployment rate is just under 10% ... really?

Answer 2

Dr. Ravi Batra (former Head of the Department of Economics at Southern Methodist University) and knowledgeable Progressive Thom Hartmann agree with you.



Do you think the country will the experience a "Golden Age" after the economic collapse caused by "Greenspan's Fraud," two of Batra's books?



Professor Batra is a demand-driven, deficit-spending, Keynesian economist.

Answer 3

something is preventable. each little thing obtainable has 2 selections for you or anybody else. you are able to say definite or no; you are able to take the suited fork in the line or the left; you will possibly be effective or unfavourable; you are able to tell the reality or lie; you're able to do good or evil. So definite it could have been prevented if issues like 'greed' and 'want' were replaced with 'good will in direction of's men' and different such issues.

Answer 4

Disagree.We are likely neither to crash nor to get better. The political drama has blocked all the way around.We is to get the unchanged position which might be a little bit better than a compromised change.